The latest ECB inflation outlook survey showed professional forecasters raising near-term price expectations as energy costs remained elevated. Respondents also lifted their 2026 growth estimate but kept longer-term inflation at the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

ECB Inflation Outlook Rises for 2026 and 2027

Respondents expected headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. Those forecasts rose by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, from the previous quarterly survey.

The 2028 estimate remained at 2.0%, while the longer-term projection for 2031 also held at 2.0%. Core inflation was projected at 2.4% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028.

Euro-area headline inflation expectations

20263.0%
20272.6%
20282.0%

Source: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, fourth quarter of 2026. Bars scaled to the 2026 forecast.

Growth Forecasts Improve as Energy Risks Persist

Forecasters raised their 2026 real GDP growth estimate by 0.4 percentage points to 1.0%. They expected growth of 1.3% in 2027 and 2028, with the longer-term estimate also at 1.3%.

The survey linked the inflation revisions mainly to higher and more persistent energy prices. Respondents saw inflation risks tilted upward through 2028, while risks to economic growth remained skewed downward.

The outlook adds context to recent monetary-policy coverage, including the Federal Reserve’s split rate decision, the Bank of Japan’s latest policy meeting and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation assessment.

Survey Timing Differs From Publication Date

The ECB collected 52 responses between October 2 and October 7, 2026. It published the results on October 30, so the survey window preceded the release by more than three weeks.

Unemployment was expected at 6.4% in 2026 before declining to 6.1% over the longer term. The ECB said the survey reflects outside forecasters’ views, not projections from its staff or decision-making bodies.

Figures come from the ECB’s fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters. The next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections are scheduled for December 18, 2026.

Elsy Kanana is a financial and cryptocurrency journalist at FusionMarketNews, covering digital assets, blockchain technology, financial markets, and emerging fintech trends. Her reporting focuses on market movements, regulatory developments, and on-chain analytics, delivering clear, data-driven insights to readers worldwide.