The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at 2.75% after a divided vote, pausing after two earlier increases. The decision occurred on October 28, while the central bank published its media release and meeting record on October 29.

RBNZ OCR Vote Reveals a Narrow Policy Split

The October 29 meeting record showed four members favored holding the rate. Three members supported raising it to 3%, citing persistent core inflation and risks that higher costs could become embedded in pricing behavior.

The majority preferred more time to assess the effects of two recent increases and weak household demand. The split contrasts with the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision, which raised its policy rate by 25 basis points.

Inflation Falls but Fuel Risks Point Higher

Annual consumer inflation slowed from 4.1% to 3.7% in the September quarter. However, the central bank expects inflation to climb to 4.4% by year-end because of higher fuel prices, while the trade-weighted New Zealand dollar has fallen about 3% since September.

Core measures moved toward the top of the target band, and 56% of weighted CPI items rose more than 3% over the year. That broadening keeps the policy outlook tighter than the headline decline alone suggests and echoes inflation concerns tracked in the ECB consumer survey.

December Decision Depends on Demand and Global Risks

RBNZ officials said tighter policy is likely but remains conditional. Export industries and tourism supported growth, while household spending, employment and house prices remained weak, limiting companies’ ability to pass higher costs to consumers.

The next OCR decision is scheduled for December 9. Policymakers will assess fuel prices, inflation expectations and domestic demand alongside global financial conditions, including policy signals following the Federal Reserve’s October meeting.

Sharron Kendi is a seasoned crypto market analyst and writer with over three years of experience decoding blockchain trends, price movements, and market dynamics. She holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Commerce (Finance) from Kenyatta University, blending a solid academic foundation with a sharp eye for technical analysis and a deep understanding of on-chain data. Her work delivers clear, data-driven insights that empower investors to navigate the fast-evolving digital asset space with confidence.